Posted by: ericgrimsrud | July 12, 2013

Miami, however, is doomed

While New York City has the problem described below, the future of the City of Miami appears to be hopeless.  All of South Florida has two big problems.  The first is its remarkably flat and low topography.  Half the area that surrounds Miami is less than five feet above sea level.  Miami’s highest natural elevation is only about 12 feet.  With just three feet of sea-level rise, more than a third of southern Florida will vanish.  And note that we expect sea levels to rise from about three to six feet by the end of this century.

In addition, all of South Florida sits on a very porous limestone plateau. This means water moves easily through its underlying soil.  Therefore, the conventional sea walls and barriers that are envisioned for use in New York City will not be effective in Miami.

In short, the city of Miami and its multitude of high rise structures are doomed.  Miami is almost assured of suffering extreme damage during storms in this century and will most likely become  an underwater and abandoned “lost city” in the next century.  Within the coming decades, we can expect insurance for existing structures in Miami to become unaffordable and after those storms hit, cries for enormous levels of national relief, of the type provided to New Orleans after Katrina to New Jersey after Sandy are sure to follow. There will be no hope of either saving or recovering Miami, however.

At present, the words “climate change” are not allowed to be spoken in the State Houses of Florida in Tallahassee where deniers of the problem are in control.  Also within the city of Miami, it is unlikely that we will see a Mayor anytime soon the likes of Bloomberg in New York who will publicly acknowledge the problem. Therefore, if you happen to live in South Florida you might want to consider moving to higher ground ASAP.

For the full scope on this story see http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-the-city-of-miami-is-doomed-to-drown-20130620#ixzz2X0NGzxLY


Responses

  1. Here in Minnesota, Excel, our electrical power company, announced that it will not address issues related to its coal plants until the Obama administration offers a clear direction for them to follow. Not much talk here about Miami other than pro basketball. Unfortunately Eric, there isn’t much understanding of chemistry by the general population. Water is pretty well understood but not CO2. This isn’t a generation of sacrificing. Just the opposite. People want free stuff, benefits, soft landings, etc. Eric, your book simply will not be read — no interest. Your children and my children are all highly educated and do not give shit about climate change. That are into careers, family and soft landings. Nice try Eric, but enjoy the party while it lasts.

    [ Response by EPG: No Shit, brother Dave. I have noted these things, myself, of course. Your comments constitute central aspects of the problem. ]

  2. Eric: Do you imagine that your source of scientific information, Rolling Stone magazine, hoped to up their circulation from the lack of sales produced from this outlandish June 20, 2013 story with the one with the picture of the demonic Boston Bomber, Dzhokhar Tsarnaev?

    [Response from EPG: John, the basics of what I said in my summary of the Miami problem is now hard science – no retractions necessary – even if the issue was also report in Playboy, for example ]

    I find it strange that we can’t get an accurate forecast of what the weather will be at the end of the week but this rag is predicting it 20 years into the future. Please allow me to offer you up some scientific FACTS of what is taking place now.

    [EPG’s response: John, so you have not learned even yet that day to day weather is indeed much more difficult to predict than long term climate change? Take my short course! or any other primer of climate. ]

    Increased ice loading in the Antarctic Peninsula since the 1850s and its effect on Glacial Isostatic Adjustment
    Key Points
    • Accumulation increase results in up to 45 m extra ice thickness over 155 years
    • Model predicts GIA-related subsidence of up to 7 mm/yr which will affect GPS
    • GRACE-derived rates of ice-mass change are biased low by ignoring this signal
    Antarctic Peninsula (AP) ice core records indicate significant accumulation increase since 1855, and any resultant ice mass increase has the potential to contribute substantially to present-day Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA).
    http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/pip/2012GL052559.shtml

    State of the Climate
    Global Snow & Ice
    October 2012
    ”The October 2012 Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent was 18.88 million square km (7.3 million square miles), 3.36 percent above average and the third largest October sea ice extent in the 1979-2012 period of record. Antarctic sea ice extent during October has increased at an average rate of 0.9 percent per decade, with substantial interannual variability.”
    http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global-snow/2012/10

    But in mid July, something happened unexpectedly: the North Pole saw one of its coolest summers since instrumental records have been kept, and sea ice melt also slowed down markedly, proceeding at a rate we normally only see only in the second half of August, see chart that follows:

    You should admit Eric, that if the arctic ice is not melting then the ice on Greenland is also not melting; therefore, where is the water for all of this sea level increase going to come from?

    This is one piece of information on sea level rise to take note of:
    ”Reconstruction of regional mean sea level anomalies from tide gauges using neural networks The global mean sea level for the period January 1900 to December 2006 is estimated to rise at a rate of 1.56 ± 0.25 mm/yr which is reasonably consistent with earlier estimates, but we do not find significant acceleration. ”
    http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2010/2009JC005630.shtml

    In order to have the catastrophic sea level raise that the Professor is claiming will happen if one more lump of coal is burned, there would have to be melting of the Greenland ice sheet.
    Journal of Climate 2012 ; e-View
    doi:
    ”We find a 12% or 86 Gt y-1 increase in ice sheet accumulation rate from the end of the Little Ice Age in ~1840 to the last decade of the reconstruction. This 1840-1996 trend is 30% higher than that of 1600-2009, suggesting an accelerating accumulation rate. The correlation of Ât(G) with the average surface air temperature in the Northern.”
    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00373.1

    Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans (1978–2012)
    Reconstruction of regional mean sea level anomalies from tide gauges using neural networks:
    “The global mean sea level for the period January 1900 to December 2006 is estimated to rise at a rate of 1.56 ± 0.25 mm/yr which is reasonably consistent with earlier estimates, but we do not find significant acceleration. The regional mean sea level of the single ocean basins show mixed long-term behavior. While most of the basins show a sea level rise of varying strength there is an indication for a mean sea level fall in the southern Indian Ocean. Also for the the tropical Indian and the South Atlantic no significant trend can be detected. Nevertheless, the South Atlantic as well as the tropical Atlantic are the only basins that show significant acceleration. On shorter timescales, but longer than the annual cycle, the basins sea level are dominated by oscillations with periods of about 50–75 years and of about 25 years. Consequently, we find high (lagged) correlations between the single basins.”

    Your hero said this: “multi-meter sea level rise on the century time scale are not only possible, but almost dead certain”
    James Hansen – 2011

    Dr. Steve Nerem said this:
    “In the last 50 years sea level has risen at an estimated rate of .18 centimeters (.07 inches) per year, but in the last 12 years that rate appears to be .3 centimeters (.12 inches) per year. Roughly half of that is attributed to the expansion of ocean water as it has increased in temperature, with the rest coming from other sources, “said Dr. Steve Nerem, associate professor, Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, University of Colorado, Boulder.

    Dr. Steve Nerem is with NASA but obviously not with the GISS branch of it that Hansen ran.

    And this:
    Red line shows increase in global sea level since the early 1990s. Sea level has risen by a little more than an inch each decade, or about 3 mm per year. The recent drop of nearly one quarter inch (½ cm), is attributable to the switch from El Niño to La Niña.
    (Credit: S. Nerem, University of Colorado)
     
    [ John, so all of this “stuff” you have shared with us makes you not believe in the greenhouse effect, does it? And that our rising CO2 levels do not matter and therefore that we not are headed towards a warmer world? All I can tell you is that your case and logic is well represented by my previous post concerning “Feelandia”. Have a look at the video in it. You’ll see your friends, but please don’t bother to share their arguments here. ]

    I read with great interest the comment from your brother David and it is interesting to note that there are some in the Grimsrud family that seem to have been allowed to have a full compliment of something that you seem to lack and that is common sense and a regard for the truth.

    [ EPG’s response: you will be disappointed to know that my brother Dave believes in the greenhouse effect and the effect that our increased CO2 levels will have on future climate. He is not scientifically illiterate. ]

    • 1. [ EPG’s response: you will be disappointed to know that my brother Dave believes in the greenhouse effect and the effect that our increased CO2 levels will have on future climate. He is not scientifically illiterate. ] I’m sorry Eric that I miss-read David’s statement but I took it to mean that “Your children and my children are all highly educated and do not give shit about climate change.” My bad, according to one who can not understand the English language.
      “Eric, your book simply will not be read — no interest. Your children and my children are all highly educated and do not give shit about climate change. That are into careers, family and soft landings. Nice try Eric, but enjoy the party while it lasts.”

      • Eric: I send you the link to a fellow Scandinavian who KNOWS far more about the subject than your scientific publication, Rolling Stone.
        THE MALDIVES SEA LEVEL PROJECT. II: PAST-PRESENT-FUTURE
        MÖRNER, Nils-Axel, Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm Univ, Stockholm S-10691 Sweden
        […]At about 1970, sea level fell by 20-30 cm (presumably due to increased evaporation). This is recorded in storm level, high-tide level, mean sea level and in lake and lagoon levels (from the north to the south). In the last decade, there are no signs of any rise in sea level. Hence, we are able to free the islands from the condemnation to become flooded in the 21st century.

        SEA LEVEL CHANGES: OBSERVATIONS VERSUS MODELS
        […] Both the glacial loading models and the ICPP scenarios are strongly contradicted by observational data for the last 100-150 years that cannot have exceeded a mean rate of 1.0-1.1 mm/year. In the last 300 years, sea level has been oscillation close to the present with peak rates in the period 1890-1930. Sea level fell between 1930 and 1950. The late 20th century lacks any sign of acceleration. Satellite altimetry indicates virtually no changes in the last decade.

        It is probably not as interesting to you as Rolling Stone and Play Boy but I believe Dr MÖRNER, far more than I do your sources.

  3. The link did not get included in the post, for some reason so will try again because you really need to give it a look.

    https://gsa.confex.com/gsa/inqu/finalprogram/abstract_54486.htm

  4. Eric; I well recall when you featured this in your blog:  “Miami, however, is doomed  Posted by: ericgrimsrud | July 12, 2013
    While New York City has the problem described below, the future of the City of Miami appears to be hopeless. […] 
    In short, the city of Miami and its multitude of high rise structures are doomed.  Miami is almost assured of suffering extreme damage during storms in this century and will most likely become  an underwater and abandoned “lost city” in the next century.” 

    It seems that the context of your remarks came from this article: 
    “Goodbye, Miami,  By century’s end, rising sea levels will turn the nation’s urban fantasyland into an American Atlantis. But long before the city is completely underwater, chaos will begin”
    http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-the-city-of-miami-is-doomed-to-drown-20130620#ixzz2X0NGzxLY 
    Being the man of science that you claim to be, I’m sure you, had you bothered to look it up, would rather go with what NOAA projects to be the sea level in 100 years for Miami of 0.78 feet than the incorrect  and unsubstantiated claims that your favorite science publication, Rolling Stone Magazine put out. 
    “The latest research, including an assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, suggests that sea level could rise more than six feet by the end of the century.” 
    “Mean Sea Level Trend
    8723170 Miami Beach, Florida
    The mean sea level trend is 2.39 millimeters/year with a 95% confidence
    interval of +/- 0.43 mm/yr based on monthly mean sea level data from
    1931 to 1981 which is equivalent to a change of 0.78 feet in 100 years.”
     http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends_station.shtml?stnid=8723170
    Eric ; you need to tell me about your favorite science source and how they are doing at hurricane predictions and the insurance business.
    “One thing that may change that is insurance rates. After Hurricane Andrew hit in 1992, many large insurers stopped offering property coverage in the state, citing the high risks of hurricane insurance.”  Rolling Stone Magazine 
    Some how you and  Rolling Stone Magazine missed these facts in your wild attempt to drown Florida.
    “Florida has gone 3,270 days without a hurricane – nearly nine years and, by far, the longest stretch on record (the next longest streak is 5 seasons from 1980-1984, in records dating back to 1851). Meanwhile, the Sunshine state’s population and development have boomed.”
     https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/10/07/why-floridas-record-setting-hurricane-drought-portends-danger/ 


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